Brazil's cases just hit 529,405 and even the most equipped ICUs are full - experts say their peak is possibly 2 weeks away. However one has to note that Jair Bolsonaro, the President, has continued to play down this health crisis, right from the beginning calling it - little flu.
But why am I worried about a country million miles away? Let me tell you why - the Government of Ghana in my view, has adopted a similar lackadaisical and reactive approach in handling this virus. Although they don't actually voice this out, some leaders have openly downplayed the severity and potentially devastating effects of the virus. As the old and common adage goes: Actions do speak louder than words.
The Government's defense? The majority of Ghanaians will suffer and the economy will plummet like never if they don't reopen the economy. Although this is an undeniable fact, the Mayor of New York; Belasio, opines by taking his city of New York into context. One needs to tackle this virus, which is a deadly adversary to be trifle with, by adopting stringent methods to make gains and this is the same for most states that have managed to keep their R rate below 1.0. However, one has to note that this does not go with dire economic consequences. Notwithstanding, public health has been the topmost priority, considering what happens, when this virus goes unchecked.
Back to my dear nation, Ghana. The government urges its populace to keep calm as they are embarking on enhanced testing - which means the virus is caught early isolated and treated.
However, this assurance of an "all is well" situation has raised some concerns that linger in my mind.
First and foremost, it is common knowledge that the virus thrives on mobility. Mobility in our dear country remains unchecked as the virus has moved from initially 2 main cities: Accra and Kumasi to about 13 other regions.
Secondly, the over assurance of enhanced testing reduces the alert levels, as some individuals might slip through contact tracing - contact tracing has its own challenges, from logistics to lack of cooperation, by our highly unsensitized population.
The workplace has increasingly become a breeding ground as admitted by leading government officials - this brings the Tema Fish Processing Factory, sharply to mind. The workplace continues to be a high-risk avenue as preventive protocols are rarely adhered to. This is also the same for other public places such as markets.
Although task forces have gone the extra mile to enforce some of these protocols in the beginning stages of lockdown, other services such as banks and telcos offices have also done well to enforce these protocols. However, the majority of society remains unchecked and in real danger. This is however not surprising, considering the NCCE has been neglected for years.
As my country, Ghana has decided to live with the virus, by opening up certain services and is also thinking of further easing restrictions, it adds on to previous concerns. How come the Ghana Health Service hasn't developed a model to know the extent of casualties and if they have, why isn't this public knowledge? A careful perusal of the data it published on its website unravel a lot of discrepancies - from sample collection and processing to data plotting. It leaves more questions than answers.
If the data used to inform crucial decisions is lacking, the models are likely to wrong. The Ghana Health service asserts that it has peaked, and yet, this has been debunked by various experts on public health. Personally, my trust in this institution diminishes by the day.
The only approach to handle this virus dwells on testing and containing the increase in numbers.
I fear that the lack of due attention to the seriousness of this crisis might see us reach Brazil's count. I sleep dreading the fact that there will be a huge spike that will propel us into total alienation.
A substantial portion of the population has comorbidities, making one even more helpless in the hands of this vicious virus.
A recent study in 2018 showed that about 10% of the population has diabetes and this makes me fear the worst. This is because, these groups of individuals who have comorbidities, are more susceptible to this unfriendly virus.
31st May comes and Government lifts restrictions with a case count of about 8070. Schools (not all) and churches are allowed to operate with safety protocols mostly being difficult to enforce. Despite the rise in cases and the decrease in the enhanced testing - which the government takes great pride in, I only fear the worst. Indeed great freedom comes with responsibility but how does a populace take responsibility when awareness needs much to be desired?
For the umpteenth time, I can only fear the worst. Epidemiologists postulate that the critical variable in monitoring, to know the impact of the easing of restrictions on community-spread is the Reproduction number. That's a non-negotiable fact of science and not a matter of opinion. As of Day 83 of Ghana's epidemic, Ghana Health Service has not provided any estimate. It is an undeniable fact that numbers will keep rising.
With the status quo not changing any moment from now, I hope my thoughts penned down wouldn't morph into an " I told you so" someday.
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